One of the hot tech stories this week is the Research in Motion (RIMM) patent infringement case which threatens to shut down the use of all Blackberries in the US.
What is the probability that will happen? Apparently, not very high – at least if we use investor and consumer behavior as a barometer. The stock price of RIMM is off its highs, but it hasn’t crashed yet, indicating investors don’t believe there will be a blackout. That’s probably because investors assume that both parties will act economically rationally if forced to negotiate a settlement.
More interesting is the fact that BlackBerry users are not rushing to eBay to immediately unload their devices in the face of this risk. This week, Blackberry’s top model, the 8700 series, which retails for $499, is selling briskly at an average and healthy price of $322. The secondary market holds hidden nuggets of powerful information that aren’t always obvious. In this case, eBay discloses the real-time level of consumer confidence that blackberries are here to stay.
Perhaps the strength of the stock influenced the solid prices on eBay this week. Is the tail waging the dog? Look for a future when the opposite occurs and real-time consumer behavior on sites like eBay lead the stock market.
January 26th, 2006 at 10:37 pm
How many individual Blackberry Users even know what is going on?
It’s a trifle bit confusing, if I understand correctly, with the Patent office disallowing 4 out of 5 of the claims against BlackBerry right now and giving strongs hints the 5th one will be disallowed. Plus the prior art that came up before the last appeal court decision and the ability to drag this on. Plus Rim has said they have a work around just in case the do lose the court case (questionable if it would work, but this probably supplies re-assurance to end users). Plus the fact the US Gov. also uses BlackBerry’s so there would be a time period if RIM lost where they would figure out something. Plus, worst case RIM could always pay the amount asked for.
I would guess that the majority of BlackBerry users are companies (lawyers, Executives, etc.), so this would not show up on the secondary market such as eBay that is more geared at a personal level.
January 27th, 2006 at 7:53 am
The interaction between the markets as suggested by you is not a new phenemenon. When an airline is involved in an unfoutunate incident, though fully insured, its patornage nose dives and also its stock prices. This has happened several times in the past. Tail wagging the dog and its reverse will happen in the future too. It will be more visible in the ebay perhaps.
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